Spanish La Liga will begin on
coming weekend and it’s a good time to think how Barcelona will perform in the
season. It is a given that Barcelona will be in top 2 in terms of standings at
the end of the season. They simply have too much firepower, too much money
(more on this later) and Messi to be otherwise. The burning question is if they
will win. I am not sure on this subject. In pre-season both Barcelona and
Madrid have showed that they are playing quite well. Madrid, if anything, have
better depth and as they did not win the Liga last season, they will have extra
motivation. Ancelotti is a fantastic coach and knows how to get players to
perform. Barcelona, on other hand, have a new coach and worrying lack of
central defender. All of efforts by Barcelona to secure a top class defender have
failed till date and even right now, their efforts to secure one of Vertonghen,
Agger or Luiz do not seem to be succeeding. In terms of squads, I will give
Madrid a slight edge and same in terms of coaching. My prediction is hence
Madrid to win the La Liga.
As for Barcelona, they have
excellent attack, excellent midfield and slightly suspect defense. In attack,
Neymar’s arrival means that Messi will no longer be required to do all the
heavy lifting by himself. Also Alexis Sanchez should have a better season. With
Pedro, Tello and Dongou in picture, there is enough bench strength to take care
of any momentary absences. In midfield, Barcelona for me has the best midfield
in world, together with Bayern. Iniesta, Xavi, Busquets, Mascherano, Song, and Cesc are all fine midfielders and can be
considered genuine contenders for starting position. With Sergi Roberto and
Jonathan Dos Santos providing young back up, Barcelona’s midfield has quality
and depth. The defense though is suspect. Pique is excellent and so is
Mascherano in his makeshift role. Puyol for me has reached a stage in career
where he is unlikely to be able to play a lot of games. So a cover at center
back position is minimum requirement for Barcelona. Alves, Alba and Adriano are
good options for wing backs. This area has been problem zone for Barcelona
since Abidal stopped being an option. Barcelona for defensive stability need a
full back who has height and good defensive positional sense. None of the three
that Barca have currently have the necessary attributes. This is in fact one
reason why I feel that Barcelona’s purchase of Alba last season contributed to
their eventual downfall. The quality of Barcelona team means that in most cases
defensive frailty goes un-noticed but against top teams, this becomes a
problem. And I think that this will again be a problem this year. Defense is a
concern area for Barcelona. In goal keeping, the team is well equipped with
Valdes and Pinto. Overall the team has lot of world class players and at the
same time some obvious weaknesses. This compels me to predict that Barcelona
are unlikely to be European Champions this season.
As spectator, I feel confident
that Barcelona will have enough good moments to enjoy. The partnership between
Messi and Neymar should be fun to watch and the yearly goal scoring race
between Messi and Ronaldo should keep the scores high.
And the scores will be high
because except for Atletico Madrid, none of other teams have noticeably strengthened
in the transfer window. Most of top players are departing for Premier League.
And this for me is sad and damning commentary on La Liga.
Even as a Barca fan, I am
wondering till how long my interest will sustain in watching the matches. The
anomaly of TV revenue where most of money goes to Madrid or Barcelona is taking
serious toll of other teams. If there are half the teams in La Liga who are unable
to maintain even competitive salary structures, the gap will widen even further
and watching the matches will become meaningless. TV revenue is only source of
money which is sizable enough and that can ensure that all teams are able to at
least compete. Before we go further into TV revenue, let’s be clear that the
reason most of clubs in Spain are in trouble is because they have been grossly
mismanaged and that is not a fault of Barcelona and Madrid. In fact, Barca and
Madrid should be commended that they have managed to avoid the missteps that
have plagued most of other la liga clubs.
Coming to TV revenue, if we look
at England, TV makes for majority of income for most of clubs. The bottom club
in premier league this season will likely make around 60 million euros or more.
For La Liga, I think that the bottom club will make less than 5 million euros
as TV revenue as compared to around 200 million for the top 2. Most of La Liga
clubs will be lucky if they break 25 million euro barrier for TV revenue. And TV
revenue will be majority income for the clubs. Hoarding of TV money by the top
2 in Spain is hence having a fundamental impact on most of the clubs in La Liga
who are unable not only to compete against the top 2 but also to compete
against the bottom clubs from other leagues. With German and Italian leagues
sharing TV revenues as well, I will not be surprised if the La Liga bottom 10
are poorer compared to bottom 10 of other leagues. With European labor market
being the free market it is, this means that La Liga clubs will also lose
average guys and this will further impact the quality of competition.
This points to me that if there are no drastic
steps taken, La Liga will act as provider to other leagues and the gap between
Madrid and Barca will become so big that the matches will lose their
competitive flavor. A few fans might love watching their team winning 10-0
every match, most of casual fans and neutral fans will desert La Liga. This
will have direct impact on Barca and Madrid and the kind of brand that they
want to become. I hope that the clubs realize soon that they need a healthy La
Liga to back up their claims to be great teams. Without strong La Liga, they
will stop mattering too.
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